Data · dataset · 2026
Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Climate prediction skill on the interannual timescale, which sits between that of seasonal and decadal, is investigated using large ensembles from the Met Office and CESM initialised coupled prediction systems.
Description
A key goal is to determine what can be skillfully predicted about the coming year when combining these two ensembles together. Annual surface temperature predictions show good skill at both global and regional scales, but skill diminishes when the trend associated with global warming is removed.
Skill for the extended boreal summer (months 7-11) and winter (months 12-16) seasons are examined, focusing on circulation and rainfall predictions. Skill in predicting rainfall in tropical monsoon regions is found to be significant for the majority of regions examined. Skill increases for all regions when active ENSO seasons are forecast.
Read the rest (1 more)
There is some regional skill for predicting extratropical circulation, but predictive signals appear to be spuriously weak.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d75x2d7v ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/skilful-interannual-climate-prediction-from-two-large-… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=2c4ce0d0-c65b-4df9-b18a-0bb6269c7… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climatology 76%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 2c4ce0d0-c65b-4df9-b18a-0bb6269c72ea | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:field:370202 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (76%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |