Projected ENSO teleconnection changes in CMIP6

As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future climate change remains is a topic of high societal relevance. Here, ENSO Surface Temperature (TAS) and Precipitation (PR) teleconnections between the historical and high-emission future simulations are compared in more than 31 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

We find significant future (2081-2100) TAS and PR teleconnection changes over approximately 50% of teleconnected regions in December-February relative to 1950-2014. The large majority of these significant teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occur, however, some regions also display a significant teleconnection dampening. Further to this, in many regions these ENSO teleconnection changes scale with the projected warming level, with higher warming leading to larger teleconnection changes.