Quantifying and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in midcentury changes in North American snowpack from NARCCAP

Various snow metrics are examined, including snow water equivalent (SWE), snow cover extent (SCE), snow cover duration (SCD), and the timing of the snow season. Simulated biases in baseline snow characteristics are found to be sensitive to the choice of RCM and less influenced by the driving GCM.

By midcentury, domain-averaged SCE and SWE are projected to decrease in all months of the year. However, using multiple RCMs to downscale multiple GCMs inflates the uncertainty in future projections of both SCE and SWE, with projections of SWE being more uncertain. Spatially, the RCMs show winter SWE decreasing over most of North America, except north of the Arctic rim, where SWE is projected to increase.