Persistent stratospheric warming due to 2019-2020 Australian wildfire smoke

A comparison of numerical simulations to satellite observations of the plume rise suggests that the smoke mass contained 2.5% black carbon. Model calculations project a 1 K warming in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes for more than 6 months following the injection of black-carbon containing smoke.

The 2020 average global mean clear sky effective radiative forcing at top of atmosphere is estimated to be -0.03 W m(-2) with a surface value of -0.32 W m(-2). Assuming that smoke particles coat with sulfuric acid in the stratosphere and have similar heterogeneous reaction rates as sulfate aerosol, we estimate a smoke-induced chemical decrease in total column ozone of 10-20 Dobson units from August to December in mid-high southern latitudes.