Prediction of energy dissipation rates for aviation turbulence. Part II: Nowcasting convective and nonconvective turbulence

In addition to turbulence forecasts, which can be used for strategic planning for turbulence avoidance, short-term nowcasts can augment longer-term forecasts by providing much more timely and accurate turbulence locations for real-time tactical avoidance of turbulence hazards, especially those related to short-lived convection. This paper describes a turbulence-nowcasting algorithm that combines recent short-term turbulence forecasts with all currently available direct turbulence observations and inferences of turbulence from other sources.

Building upon the need to provide forecasts that are aircraft independent, the nowcasts provide estimates of an atmospheric metric of turbulence, namely, the energy dissipation rate to the one-third power (EDR). Some observations directly provide EDR, such as in situ observations from select commercial aircraft and ground-based radar algorithm output, whereas others must be translated to EDR. A strategy is provided for mapping turbulence observations, such as pilot reports (PIREPs), and inferences from other relevant observational data sources, such as observed surface wind gusts, into EDR.