Data · dataset · 2026
The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
The potential for multiyear prediction of impactful Earth system change remains relatively underexplored compared to shorter (subseasonal to seasonal) and longer (decadal) timescales.
Description
In this study, we introduce a new initialized prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) that is specifically designed to probe potential and actual prediction skill at lead times ranging from 1 month out to 2 years.
The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) consists of a collection of 2-year-long hindcast simulations, with four initializations per year from 1970 to 2019 and an ensemble size of 20. A full suite of output is available for exploring near-term predictability of all Earth system components represented in CESM2. We show that SMYLE skill for El Nino-Southern Oscillation is competitive with other prominent seasonal prediction systems, with correlations exceeding 0.5 beyond a lead time of 12 months.
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A broad overview of prediction skill reveals varying degrees of potential for useful multiyear predictions of seasonal anomalies in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The SMYLE dataset, experimental design, model, initial conditions, and associated analysis tools are all publicly available, providing a foundation for research on multiyear prediction of environmental change by the wider community.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7hh6pvq ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/the-seasonal-to-multiyear-large-ensemble-smyle-predict… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=613aaa88-43e8-4f0c-89fc-d58e2ecf3… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Computational modelling and simulation in earth sciences 78%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 613aaa88-43e8-4f0c-89fc-d58e2ecf3e78 | 13 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:field:370401 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (78%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |