Extratropical cyclone statistics during the last millennium and the 21st century

The analysis is based on a seamless transient simulation with a state-of-the-art fully coupled Earth system model from 850 to 2100 CE. The Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario is used in the 21st century.

During the Common Era, cyclone characteristics show pronounced variations on interannual and decadal timescales, but no external forcing imprint is found prior to 1850. Thus, variations of extratropical cyclone characteristics are mainly caused by internal variability of the coupled climate system. When anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant in the 20th century, a decrease of the cyclone occurrences mainly over the Mediterranean and a strong increase of extreme cyclone-related precipitation become detectable.