An agent-based modeling framework for examining the dynamics of the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system

Because of these complex and uncertain dynamics, improving the hurricaneforecast-evacuation system remains a formidable challenge for researchers and practitioners alike. This article introduces a modeling framework built to holistically investigate the complex dynamics of the hurricaneforecast-evacuation system i.e., to determine which factors are most important and how they interact across a range of real or synthetic scenarios.

The modeling framework, called FLEE, includes models of the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road infrastructure), and connections between systems (forecasts and warning information, traffic). In this paper, we describe FLEE's conceptualization and implementation and present proof-of-concept experiments illustrating its behaviors when key parameters are modified.