VOEvent meteor shower service

The ephemeris were produced by simulating the ejection of meteoroids from the sunlit hemisphere of cometary nuclei, typically from 0 to 3 au, followed by the propagation of orbits of meteoroids in the Solar System, taking into account the gravity of the Sun, the 8 planets, Pluto, and the Moon, as well as the radiation pressure and the Poynting-Robertson drag. Note that asteroid parent bodies were considered as active (i.e. comet-like bodies) even if they are not active today.

The showers are predicted when a planet enters a large enough set of meteoroids, at a distance less than typically 0.01 au. See Vaubaillon J., Colas F., Jorda L. 2005 A new method to predict meteor showers. I. Description of the model, Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 439/2 p.751-760, as well as: Vaubaillon J. 2017 A confidence index for forecasting of meteor showers, Planetary and Space Science, Volume 143 p.78-82