Estimated values of boreal caribou demographic rates (R, S, lambda) generated from SpaDES landscape simulations in the Northwest Territories

We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT’s Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests.

We do not project boreal caribou population growth rates to change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk.

Methods

Please see the README document ("README.md") and the accompanying published article: Stewart, Micheletti et al. 2023. Climatepinformed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for nothern boreal caribou. Ecological Applications.