Local and remote moisture sources both increase late twenty-first century Arctic precipitation

In fact, late twenty-first century fall and winter precipitation increases are driven by these local surface ocean changes. In contrast, late twenty-first century moisture transport driven by nonlocal surface ocean warming entirely explains late twenty-first century summer precipitation increases. Furthermore, these new experiments show that late twenty-first century Arctic precipitation increases are directly driven by surface ocean warming and sea ice loss, indicating that surface ocean evaporation directly drives these increases rather than land-sourced moisture.

Additionally, our experimental design enables an understanding and quantification of the coinfluence between local surface evaporation and remote moisture transport. This coinfluence acts to reduce late twenty-first century Arctic precipitation during the fall and early winter. Overall, these results show when and where surface ocean warming and sea ice loss affect future Arctic precipitation increases.