How do regional distributions of daily precipitation change under warming?

Projected future CMIP5 GCM changes in regional daily precipitation distribution can be described by a combination of two idealized modes: a frequency decrease mode, representing a reduction in the frequency of precipitation at all rain rates; and a frequency shift mode, where the distribution shifts toward heavier rain rates.

A decrease in daily precipitation frequency and an increase in intensity are projected in most regions, but the magnitude of change shows large regional variations. The two modes generally capture the projected shift from light/moderate to heavy rain rates but do not recreate GCM changes at the very highest and lowest rain rates. We propose a simple framework for deep convective precipitation change based on the dry static energy (DSE) budget, which provides a physical explanation of these idealized modes in regions and seasons where deep convection dominates precipitation.