Prediction of Northern Hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information

Evidence suggests that early springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone acts as a proxy for extreme events in the winter polar vortex. Here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, reanalysis and observations, we extend the forecast potential of ozone on surface temperatures to aspects of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere.

Sea ice fraction and sea ice extent differences between years of March high and low Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes show excellent agreement between an ensemble of chemistry-climate model simulations and observations, with differences occurring not just in April but extending through to the following winter season in some locations. Large snow depth differences are also obtained in regional locations in Russia and along the southeast coast of Alaska.