Data · dataset · 2026
Uncertainty in climate change projections of the Hadley circulation: The role of internal variability
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
The uncertainty arising from internal climate variability in climate change projections of the Hadley circulation (HC) is presently unknown.
Description
In this paper it is quantified by analyzing a 40-member ensemble of integrations of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario over the period 2000â60. An additional set of 100-yr-long time-slice integrations with the atmospheric component of the same model [Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.0 (CAM3)] is also analyzed.
Focusing on simple metrics of the HCâits strength, width, and heightâthree key results emerge from the analysis of the CCSM3 ensemble. First, the projected weakening of the HC is almost entirely confined to the Northern Hemisphere, and is stronger in winter than in summer. Second, the projected widening of the HC occurs only in the winter season but in both hemispheres.
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Third, the projected rise of the tropical tropopause occurs in both hemispheres and in all seasons and is, by far, the most robust of the three metrics. This paper shows further that uncertainty in future trends of the HC width is largely controlled by extratropical variability, while those of HC strength and height are associated primarily with tropical dynamics. Comparison of the CCSM3 and CAM3 integrations reveals that oceanâatmosphere coupling is the dominant source of uncertainty in future trends of HC strength and height and of the tropical mean meridional circulation in general.
Finally, uncertainty in future trends of the hydrological cycle is largely captured by the uncertainty in future trends of the mean meridional circulation.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7p27014 ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/uncertainty-in-climate-change-projections-of-the-hadle… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=416c7c7a-cf07-4057-9d3c-a5a355074… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climate change science 72%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 416c7c7a-cf07-4057-9d3c-a5a355074f54 | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3702 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (72%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |