Rapidly warming waters drive Vibrio parahaemolyticus abundance in a northern gulf

The model revealed that, in some areas, Vp outbreak risk was 7% higher in 2023 compared to 1998. Sea surface temperature showed the strongest relationship and has likely driven increased Vp outbreaks in this region. While previous research has suggested the abundance of Vibrios is likely to increase under future climate change scenarios, our results reveal that climate change has already led to increased Vp abundance.

Our findings suggest that Vp in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is an ecological sentinel of climate change in rapidly warming marine waters. Vp abundances are likely to intensify in this region as marine climates continue to change, with likely risks to the aquaculture sector and human health.

This data submission includes python scripts compatible with ArcGIS Pro to generate the included csv data file, as well as R scripts for modelling and analysis. Third-party data is required for both the python scripts and the R scripts; data sources are noted in the README file.