Arctic atmospheric rivers in a changing climate and the impacts on sea ice

As climate warming and sea ice decline continue, understanding how Arctic ARs evolve is essential. While studies suggest an increase in Arctic ARs and storms, a comprehensive understanding of their changing behavior, seasonal patterns, and sea ice impacts remains incomplete.

This study investigates the changing dynamics of Arctic ARs in response to a warming climate, examining the drivers of these changes and their impact on sea ice. Using the Community Earth System Model, Version 2 (CESM2), we find CESM2 effectively simulates Arctic ARs compared to ERA5. To analyze ARs under different climate conditions, we apply three detection methods: using present climate thresholds, scaling thresholds with projected future moisture changes, and calculating unique thresholds for each decade.