<p>Scales for pairwise comparisons.</p>

This study develops an empirical modelling framework to assess drought vulnerability and impacts at three temporal horizons, 2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We integrated bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP6 models, MRI-ESM2–0, EC-Earth3, IPSL-CM6A-LR, CESM2, and HadGEM3-GC31-LL, downscaled to 0.25° resolution, with drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index SPI, Reconnaissance Drought Index RDI, Normalized Difference Drought Index NDDI, and Soil Moisture Index SMI.

These were combined with MODIS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI, population density, and land use/land cover using GIS-based tools to generate composite drought vulnerability maps. CMIP6 models were validated against reference datasets and showed strong performance for annual precipitation, r = 0.95, RMSE = 3.4 mm, and temperature, r = 0.99, RMSE = 0.47–0.74°C. Results project increasing drought severity, with mean temperature rises of 2.0–3.9°C and rainfall declines up to 19% by 2100.