Cloud-system resolving model simulations of aerosol indirect effects on tropical deep convection and its thermodynamic environment

The ensemble approach demonstrates a small weakening of convection averaged over the 6-day period in the polluted simulations compared to pristine. Despite this weakening, the cloud top heights and anvil ice mixing ratios are higher in polluted conditions. This occurs because of the larger concentrations of cloud droplets that freeze, leading directly to higher ice particle concentrations, smaller ice particle sizes, and smaller fall velocities compared to simulations with pristine aerosols.

Weaker convection in polluted conditions is a direct result of the changes in anvil ice characteristics and subsequent upper-tropospheric radiative heating and weaker tropospheric destabilization. Such a conclusion offers a different interpretation of recent satellite observations of tropical deep convection in pristine and polluted environments compared to the hypothesis of aerosol-induced convective invigoration. Sensitivity tests using the ensemble approach with modified microphysical parameters or domain configuration (horizontal gridlength, domain size) produce results that are similar to baseline, although there are quantitative differences in estimates of aerosol impacts on TOA radiative fluxes.