A Weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions

The wind speed distributions in these datasets are well represented by the Weibull distribution, albeit with different scale and shape parameters. A power-law transfer function is used to recalibrate the Weibull variables and obtain future projections of wind speeds. Two different strategies, bias correction and change factor, are tested by using 36-km model data to predict future 12-km model data (pseudo-observations).

The strategies are also applied to the observations to obtain likely predictions of the future distributions of wind speeds. The strategies yield similar predictions of likely changes in the fraction of events within Saffir-Simpson categories—for example, an increase from 21% (1995–2005) to 27%–37% (2045–55) for category 3 or above events and an increase from 1.6% (1995-2005) to 2.8%-9.8% (2045-55) for category 5 events.