Insignificant QBO-MJO prediction skill relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal reforecasts

When MJO prediction skill is analyzed for December to February, MJO prediction skill is higher in the easterly phase of the QBO than the westerly phase, consistent with previous studies.

However, the relationship between QBO phase and MJO prediction skill is not statistically significant for most models. This insignificant QBO-MJO skill relationship is further confirmed by comparing two subseasonal reforecast experiments with the Community Earth System Model v1 using both a high-top (46-level) and low-top (30-level) version of the Community Atmosphere Model v5. While there are clear differences in the forecasted QBO between the two model top configurations, a negligible change is shown in the MJO prediction, indicating that the QBO in this model may not directly control the MJO prediction and supporting the insignificant QBO-MJO skill relationship found in SubX and S2S models.