Climate-Driven Distribution Modelling of the Glacial Apollo Butterfly (Parnassius glacialis) for Biodiversity Conservation

Parnassius glacialis (glacial Apollo), an alpine papilionid butterfly with high scientific and ornamental value, has rarely been studied for its climatic responses. We constructed an ensemble species distribution model based on 45 occurrence records and 10 bioclimatic variables to map its current and future suitable habitats across China and detect core environmental drivers.

Modelling results showed seasonal temperature variation as the primary factor governing habitat suitability, with precipitation as the secondary driver. Current suitable habitats cluster in North, Southwest and East China, while future climate projections predict severe habitat loss and a centroid shift toward low‑elevation regions of Hubei Province; the migration magnitude differs across SSP scenarios, implying high climate vulnerability of this butterfly.