Data · dataset · 2026
Deciphering solar magnetic activity: The (solar) hale cycle terminator of 2021
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
We previously identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24).
Description
The timeframe for this transition was rapid, taking place over a very short time and perhaps in a time as short as a single solar rotation. Further, we inferred that the transition observed was a critical moment for the Sun's global-scale magnetic field as it was being manifest in the spatially and temporally overlapping magnetic systems belonging to the Sun's 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle.
These events have been dubbed as Hale Cycle terminations, or 'terminators' for short. Subsequent exploration of the sunspot record revealed a relationship between terminator separation (as a measure of overlap in the Hale Cycles) and the upcoming sunspot cycle amplitude using a Hilbert transform. Finally, we extrapolated the contemporary sunspots data's Hilbert phase function to project the occurrence of the SC24 terminator in Mid-2020 and inferred that this would result in a large sunspot Cycle 25 (SC25) amplitude.
Read the rest (1 more)
This paper presents observational evidence that the end of SC24 and the initial growth of SC25 followed a terminator that occurred in mid-December 2021 (approximately 12/13/2021). Using this December 2021 terminator identification we can finalize our earlier preliminary forecast of SC25 amplitude - anticipating a peak total monthly sunspot number of 184 +/- 17 with 68% confidence, and 184 +/- 63 with 95% confidence. Finally, we use other terminator-related superposed epoch analyses developed in parallel work we project the timing of SC25 sunspot maximum to occur between late 2023 to mid 2024.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7bz69zf ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/deciphering-solar-magnetic-activity-the-solar-hale-cyc… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=f7af31c7-dfea-4ee2-8639-412946f8e… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
Provenance · 1 source records, 7 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | f7af31c7-dfea-4ee2-8639-412946f8e222 | 13 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |