Data · dataset · 2026
Evaluating the time of occurrence of selected global warming levels for CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
This technical note explains the rationale for choosing to work with changes in global mean temperature (also known as "Global Warming Levels"; GWL) rather than defined periods in the future.
Description
It documents the methodology used to estimate changes in global mean temperature to enable others to reproduce these results for other models. Finally, it presents the estimates of when specific thresholds will be crossed by different models/ensemble members/emissions scenarios in the North American Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) for reference by American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) design code developers.
The scenarios considered do not include âlow emissionsâ pathways that do not have a potential to reach high GWL. Additional models associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects v5 and v6 (CMIP5, CMIP6) are included in the Appendices. ASCE has decided to consider a future GWL of 3°C for structures whose design life will end in 2080-2100, referred to throughout as 3GWL.
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Given the non-linear relationship between temperature and variables such as snow or freezing rain, this technical note also considers a 2°C, or 2GWL. The warmest models in NA-CORDEX cross 2GWL at the start of the simulation period with the earliest ensemble members crossing between 2017-2036, compared to the ensemble mean of 2022-2041. There is one model-emission combination that does not cross the 2GWL threshold prior to 2100.
Several model and emission combinations do not cross the 3GWL threshold prior to 2100, although the warmest models cross the threshold between 2036-2055.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7d50sfx ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/evaluating-the-time-of-occurrence-of-selected-global-w… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=4e267ed7-9f0a-4e8a-b8e2-113698264… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climate change science 72% · Simulation 75%
Provenance · 1 source records, 9 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 4e267ed7-9f0a-4e8a-b8e2-113698264d24 | 13 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3702 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (72%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[method].local:method:simulation | enrichment · data ucar edu | keyword-concept-rules@1.0.0 | title+description (75%) |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |