CCS Projections for seabird species

These downscaled projections are based on an implementation of the same 0.1 degree ROMS domain described above, with bias-corrected forcing obtained from three earth system models (ESMs) for the period from 1980 to 2100 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario (Pozo Buil et al., 2021, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ddi.13800#ddi13800-bib-0063). Downscaled ESMs were selected to span the range of plausible futures for the CCS, and belong to the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) archive: the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (GFDL) ESM2M, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) CM5A-MR and the Hadley Center HadGEM2-ES (HAD).

Five seabird species were selected for projecting future distributions based on data availability ecological importance for the CCS ecosystem, and diverse life-histories including two seasonal migrants: black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes) and sooty shearwater (Ardenna grisea), that typically inhabit the CCS from late-winter through early fall (~March - October), as well as three year-round resident species: Cassin's auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus), rhinoceros auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata), and common murre (Uria aalge).

BRTs were fitted with occurrence (presence-absence) data for these five species using at-sea survey data compiled from various scientific programs running from 1980-2017 (Leirness et al., 2021, pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70228321).