Changes in carbon uptake and emissions by oceans in a changing climate

We will improve the quantitative understanding of key biogeochemical processes (particle flux, ecosystem community structure, lateral advection) and physical processes (overturning circulation, ice cover, mixing) through a combination of observations and models.

We will upscale new process understanding to large-scale integrative feedbacks of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. We will quantify the vulnerability of the ocean carbon sources and sinks in a probabilistic sense using cutting edge coupled Earth system models under a variety of emission scenarios including climate stabilisation scenarios as required for the 5th IPCC assessment report.