Use of daily station observations to produce high-resolution gridded probabilistic precipitation and temperature time series for the Hawaiian Islands

Daily interpolation performs better for short time periods (e.g., 1 month or less) or when the precipitation distribution substantially diverges from climatology. The CAI ensemble is able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature patterns, including precipitation occurrence. Leave-one-out cross-validation results illustrate that the ensemble has 1) minimal bias for precipitation and temperature; 2) a mean absolute error of 2.5 mm day(-1), 1.0 K, and 2.2 K for precipitation and mean and diurnal temperature, respectively; 3) a mean absolute error of 3.3 mm day(-1) for the standard deviation of precipitation; and 4) nearly unbiased probability distributions across multiple thresholds of precipitation intensity.

Additionally, the ensemble provides estimates of uncertainty across the distributions with increasing uncertainty for higher percentiles.