Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 Model

Perfect model predictability experiments are conducted starting from 10 different initial states, showing potentially predictable variations of Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation rates on time scales as long as 20 years. The associated Weddell Sea (WS) subsurface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice have potential predictability comparable to that of the AABW cell.

The predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the WS and the SO is somewhat smaller, with predictable scales out to a decade. This reduced predictability is likely associated with stronger damping from air-sea interaction. As a complement to this perfect predictability study, the authors also make hindcasts of SO decadal variability using the GFDL CM2.1 decadal prediction system.