Data · dataset · 2026
Next-day prediction of tornadoes using convection-allowing models with 1-km horizontal grid spacing
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Explicit attributes of convective storms within convection-allowing model (CAM) forecasts are routinely used as surrogates for convective weather hazards.
Description
The ability of 3- and 1-km horizontal grid spacing CAM forecasts to anticipate tornadoes using surrogates was examined for 497 severe weather events. Five diagnostics were used as tornado surrogates, including 0â1 km above ground level (AGL) updraft helicity (UH01), 2â5 km AGL UH (UH25), 0â3 km AGL UH (UH03), and 500 m and 1 km AGL relative vorticity.
Next-day surrogate severe probability forecasts (SSPFs) for tornadoes were produced by thresholding the diagnostics and smoothing the resulting binary field. SSPFs were verified against SPC tornado reports and NWS tornado warnings. The 1-km SSPFs were more skillful than 3-km SSPFs across all diagnostics with statistically significant differences in skill that were largest on the mesoscale.
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UH01 outperformed the other four diagnostics, in part because UH01 best represented regional variations in observed tornado report totals. Filtering forecasts based on the significant tornado parameter benefited the 3-km SSPFs much more than the 1-km SSPFs, with filtered 3-km SSPFs having similar skill to the filtered 1-km SSPFs. SSPFs verified with a combination of tornado warnings and reports were more skillful than when verified against reports alone, indicating that CAMs can better predict intense low-level rotation events than tornadoes.
When verifying all severe hazards, UH25 SSPFs were more skillful than UH01 SSPFs; UH01 and UH25 appear to be the most useful pair for anticipating tornadoes and the combined severe threat on a given forecast day.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7s46tq8 ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/next-day-prediction-of-tornadoes-using-convection-allo… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=87549f8f-5700-4bd6-a2f5-508b8f14a… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Geoinformatics 68%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 87549f8f-5700-4bd6-a2f5-508b8f14ad31 | 13 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3704 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (68%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |