Dynamical structures of cross-domain forecast error covariance of a simulated tropical cyclone in a convection-permitting coupled atmosphere-ocean model

Understanding the dynamics of the flow-dependent forecast error covariance across the air-sea interface is beneficial toward revealing the potential influences of strongly coupled data assimilation on tropical cyclone (TC) initialization in coupled models, and the fundamental dynamics associated with TC air-sea interactions. A200-member ensemble of convection-permitting forecasts from a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional model is used to investigate the forecast error covariance across the oceanic and atmospheric domains during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Florence (2018).

Forecast uncertainties in both atmospheric and oceanic domains, from an Eulerian perspective, increase with forecast lead time, mainly from TC displacement errors. In a storm-relative framework, the ensemble forecast uncertainties in both domains are predominantly caused by differences in the simulated storm intensity and structure. The largest ensemble spread in the atmospheric pressure, temperature, and wind fields can be found within the TC inner-core region.