Data · dataset · 2026
Future simulated changes in central U.S. Mesoscale convective system rainfall caused by changes in convective and stratiform structure
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are responsible for a majority of warm season flash flood events in the central U.S. Given their high impact, it is critical to understand how MCSs will change in a future climate.
Description
This study identifies eight flood-producing MCS cases of different archetypes and runs ensembles of 192 high-resolution historical and future simulations in order to analyze the range in future MCS rainfall and structural changes.
Future area-average rainfall increases by 98% on average, with an 89%-111% range among ensemble members, while maximum rainfall increases by 31%, with a 24%-43% range. MCSs components are classified into deep convective cores (DCCs), wide convective cores (WCCs), and broad stratiform regions (BSRs) to understand how changes in these structures contribute to future rainfall changes. In a warmer climate, the number of DCCs increase on average by +30 (+5,545%), the average WCC area increases by 75%, and the average BSR area increases by 40%.
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The future rainfall increases are mainly due to increases in convective rainfall with large variability in rainfall from DCCs and less variability from WCCs. Despite their increase in size, BSR rainfall shows little increase. These rainfall and structural changes vary among MCS types, with back-building MCSs exhibiting the largest increases in future rainfall mainly due to increases in the number of DCCs and WCC area.
Such information is critical to better understand the drivers of change in future MCS rainfall and improve prediction of future flood impacts.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7988bzd ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/future-simulated-changes-in-central-u-s-mesoscale-conv… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=6a9897db-5234-4198-8c58-fd0bf8637… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climate change science 70%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 6a9897db-5234-4198-8c58-fd0bf8637960 | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3702 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (70%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |