Future heat waves and surface ozone

The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0-RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels.

With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa).