The global industrial value-added dataset under different global change scenarios (2010, 2030, and 2050)

Statistical Data:From the World Development Indicators dataset of the World Bank and various national statistical agenciesd. Gross Domestic Product Data:Sourced from the project "Study on the Harmful Processes of Population and Economic Systems under Global Change" under the National Key R&D Program "Mechanisms and Assessment of Risks in Population and Economic Systems under Global Change," led by Researcher Sun Fubao at the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciencese.

Other Data:Rivers, roads, settlements, and DEM, sourced from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Global Risk Data Platform, and Natural Earth9. Data Processing Methods(1) Spatialization of Baseline Industrial Value Added: Using 2010 global EVI vegetation index data and nighttime light remote sensing data, we addressed the oversaturation issue in nighttime light data by constructing an adjusted nighttime light index to obtain the optimal global light data.

The EANTIL model was developed using NTL, NTLn, and EVI data, with the following formula:Here, EANTLI represents the adjusted nighttime light index, NTL represents the original nighttime light intensity value, and NTLn represents the normalized nighttime light intensity value. Based on the optimal light index EANTLI and the industrial value-added data from the World Bank, we constructed a regression allocation model to derive industrial value added (I), generating the global 2010 industrial value-added data with the formula:Here, I represents the industrial value added for each grid cell, and Ii represents the industrial value added for each country, EANTLi derived from ArcGIS statistical analysis and the regression allocation model.(2) Spatial Boundaries for Future Industrial Value Added: Using the Logistic-CA-Markov simulation principle and global land use data from 2010 and 2015 (from the European Space Agency), we simulated national land use changes for 2030 and 2050 and extracted urban land data as the spatial boundaries for future industrial value added.

To comprehensively characterize the influence of different factors on land use and considering the research scale, we selected elevation, slope, population, GDP, distance to rivers, and distance to roads as land use driving factors. Accuracy validation using global 2015 land use data showed an average accuracy of 91.89%.(3) Estimation of Future Industrial Value Added: Based on machine learning and using the random forest model, we constructed spatialization models for industrial value added under different climate change scenarios: Here, tem represents temperature, prep represents precipitation, GDP represents national economic output, L represents urban land, D represents slope, and P represents population.

The random forest model was constructed using factors such as 2010 industrial value added, urban land distribution, elevation, slope, distances to rivers, roads, railways (considering transportation), and settlements (considering noise and environmental pollution from industrial buildings), along with temperature and precipitation as climate scenario data. Except for varying temperature and precipitation values across scenarios, other variables remained constant.

The model comprised 100 decision trees, with each iteration randomly selecting 90% of the samples for model construction and using the remaining 10% as test data, achieving a training sample accuracy of 0.94 and a test sample accuracy of 0.81.By analyzing the proportion of industrial value added to GDP (average from 2000 to 2020, data from the World Bank) and projected GDP under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we derived future industrial value added for each country under different SSP scenarios.

Using these projections, we constructed regression models to allocate future industrial value added proportionally, resulting in spatial distribution data for 2030 and 2050 under different SSP scenarios.10. Applications and Achievements of the Dataseta. Primary Application Areas: This dataset is mainly applied in environmental protection, ecological construction, pollution prevention and control, and the prevention and forecasting of natural disasters.b.

Achievements in Application (Awards, Published Reports and Articles):Achievements: Developed a method for downscaling national-scale industrial value-added data by integrating DMSP/OLS nighttime light data, vegetation distribution, and other data. Published the global industrial value-added dataset.