The effect of topographic variability on initial condition sensitivity of low-level wind forecasts. Part II: Experiments using real terrain and observations

The increased impact of adjustments to initial conditions corresponds with gradients in the flow field induced by the presence of the terrain obstacle.

In cross-barrier flow situations the impact of the initial condition adjustments on the final forecast increases linearly as the height of the terrain obstacle increases. While this property associated with initial condition perturbations may be present in an analytic and controlled numerical environment, it is often difficult to realize these benefits in a more operationally realistic setting. This study extends the prior work to a situation with actual terrain, Doppler radar wind observations over the terrain, and observations from a surface mesonet for model verification.