Inflation-output trade-offs and the implications for monetary policy 1993-1997

( natural rate hypothesis, Phillips curve P1380B: Cross-sectional meta-analysis of 143 developed and developing countries, based on material from 10 studies previously published. Variables: supply response to changes in the expected real price level in each individual market, price variance, trade-off effects of an unexpected increase in nominal demand on cyclical output and variance of nominal demand growth. Analysis aimed at testing Lucas variability hypotheses.

( new-classical economics / Phillips-curve ) P1380C: Quarterly time-series data (1969:1 - 1995:2 / 106 points of measurement) containing for Spain and Italy: consumer price index - 1990=100 (for Germany also), European price index (constructed), import price index - 1990=100, exchange rate towards Deutschmark and real effective exchange rate index - 1972=100 (constructed) Source: International Financial Statistics/ constructed variables: various.

Analysis aimed at testing increase of speed of inflation convergence of Spain and Italy when joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism ( ERM )of the European Monetary System ( EMS ) and when maintaining a hard peg to the Deutschmark in the 1975-1995 period. ( credibility hypothesis / monetary policy )