Weather forecasts by the WRF-ARW model with the GSI data assimilation system in the complex terrain areas of southwest Asia

The subsequent statistical evaluation is designed to assess the model's surface and upper-air forecast accuracy. Results show that the model biases caused by inadequate parameterization of physical processes are relatively small, except for the 2-m temperature, as compared to the nonsystematic errors resulting in part from the uncertainty in the initial conditions.

The total model forecast errors at the surface show a substantial spatial heterogeneity; the errors are relatively larger in higher mountain areas. The performance of 2-m temperature forecasts is different from the other surface variables' forecasts; the model forecast errors in 2-m temperature forecasts are closely related to the terrain configuration. The diurnal cycle variation of these near-surface temperature forecasts from the model is much smaller than what is observed.