Data · dataset · 2026
Statistical postprocessing of high-resolution regional climate model output
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Statistical postprocessing techniques have become essential tools for downscaling large-scale information to the point scale, and also for providing a better probabilistic characterization of hydrometeorological variables in simulation and forecasting applications at both short and long time scales.
Description
In this paper, the authors assess the utility of statistical postprocessing methods for generating probabilistic estimates of daily precipitation totals, using deterministic high-resolution outputs obtained with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model.
After a preliminary assessment of WRF simulations over a historical period, the performance of three postprocessing techniques is compared: multinomial logistic regression (MnLR), quantile regression (QR), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA)-all of which use WRF outputs as potential predictors. Results demonstrate that the WRF Model has skill in reproducing observed precipitation events, especially during fall/winter. Furthermore, it is shown that the spatial distribution of skill obtained from statistical postprocessing is closely linked with the quality of WRF precipitation outputs.
Read the rest (2 more)
A detailed comparison of statistical precipitation postprocessing approaches reveals that, although the poorest performance was obtained using MnLR, there is not an overall best technique. While QR should be preferred if skill (i.e., small probability forecast errors) and reliability (i.e., match between forecast probabilities and observed frequencies) are target properties, BMA is recommended in cases when discrimination (i.e., prediction of occurrence versus nonoccurrence) and statistical consistency (i.e., equiprobability of the observations within their ensemble distributions) are desired.
Based on the results obtained here, the authors believe that future research should explore frameworks reconciling hierarchical Bayesian models with the use of the extreme value theory for high precipitation events.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d70g3mb1 ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/statistical-postprocessing-of-high-resolution-regional… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=d33f3344-5cda-4236-b3f5-22b1642aa… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climate change processes 77% · Climate model simulation 65% · Simulation 75%
Provenance · 1 source records, 10 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | d33f3344-5cda-4236-b3f5-22b1642aa519 | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:field:370201 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (77%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[method].local:method:climate-model | enrichment · data ucar edu | keyword-concept-rules@1.0.0 | title+description (65%) |
| concepts[method].local:method:simulation | enrichment · data ucar edu | keyword-concept-rules@1.0.0 | title+description (75%) |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |