High resolution forecasting of summer drought in the Western United States

Drought forecasting efforts have often been conducted and evaluated at coarse spatial resolutions (i.e., > 10-km), which miss key local drought information at higher resolutions. Addressing the importance of forecasting drought at high resolutions, this study develops statistical models to evaluate 1- to 3-month lead time predictability of meteorological and agricultural summer drought across the western U.S. at a 4-km resolution.

Our high-resolution drought predictions have statistically significant skill (p = 0.73). This study is intended to support future development of operational drought early warning systems that inform drought management.