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Assessing sensitivities in algorithmic detection of tropical cyclones in climate data

Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research

This study applies a sensitivity analysis (SA) technique (the Morris method, MM) to an automated Lagrangian tropical cyclone (TC) tracking algorithm used on gridded climate data.

Description

MM demonstrates the ability to screen for input parameters defining TCs (such as minimum intensity and lifetime) that contribute significantly to sensitivity in output metrics (such as storm count). The SA is performed by tracking TCs in four different reanalyses.

Tracked TC trajectories are compared to a pointwise observational record. Results show that using thermally integrated metrics for isolating TC warm cores is superior to single-temperature levels. Input thresholds defining TC vortex strength during tracking contribute the most variance in all output metrics.

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Integrated output metrics (such as accumulated cyclone energy) are less variable than counting metrics such as TC frequency. MM greatly reduces the computational requirements for tracker optimization, with tracked TCs demonstrating better hit and false alarm rates than previous studies.

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Inferred from text
Climate change science 73%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
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National Center for Atmospheric Research22815179-0c48-4d81-b1be-f1358bac3e1510 d agoJSON v1
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concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmentalmapping · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmosphericmapping · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
created_datesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
descriptionsource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0/notes
publication_datesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0
titlesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0/title
updated_datesource · data ucar educonnector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0