Climate adaptation scenarios for a resilient future at University of British Columbia Botanical Garden: Modeling 4 Species of Acer (Maple)

Maxent, a popular machine-learning algorithm, was used with open-source WorldClim’s 19 bioclimatic variables and provided presence-only occurrence data to conduct species distribution models for each tree species. Each model was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC). AUC scores were considered ‘good’ for each model; A. griseum - 0.95; A. pentaphyllum - 0.877; A. macrophyllum - 0.986; A. circinatum - 0.976.

However, future distribution maps contain questionable results due to insufficient field data to inform the model, such as in-field temperature, moisture, elevation, and surrounding vegetation data. Though results can be interpreted as binary regarding whether or not UBCBG will be suitable for each species, they should be taken as preliminary ideas where management plans for mitigation and adaptation can be developed. This study concludes by detailing the importance of field data collection and provides future directions for research that UBCBG may consider when conducting similar analysis.