Green Transition of Agricultural Supply Chains under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: A Stochastic Evolutionary Game Analysis of Impacts and Responses

This study develops a tripartite stochastic evolutionary game involving an exporting country's agricultural supply chain, its government, and the EU regulator. Drawing on factor endowment theory and customs union theory, the model introduces Gaussian white noise to represent uncertainty arising from carbon-price volatility and agricultural production risk.

It then usesstochastic differential equations to derive the evolutionarily stable strategies and the conditions under which they arise. We calibrate the model with a 2013-2023 panel of China's agricultural exports to the EU. An augmented gravity model estimates the marginal trade effect of environmental regulation, while system-dynamics simulations trace how the main parameters shape strategy selection.