Occurrence rates for Q1-Q16 KOI catalog planet cand.

For this study, we adopt a simple 2D grid in planet radius and orbital period as our model and apply our algorithm to estimate occurrence rates for Q1-Q16 planet candidates orbiting solar-type stars. We arrive at significantly increased planet occurrence rates for small planet candidates (R_p_<1.25 R_{Earth}_) at larger orbital periods (P>80 day) compared to the rates estimated by the more common inverse detection efficiency method (IDEM).

Our improved methodology estimates that the occurrence rate density of small planet candidates in the habitable zone of solar-type stars is 1.6_-0.5_^+1.2^ per factor of 2 in planet radius and orbital period. Additionally, we observe a local minimum in the occurrence rate for strong planet candidates marginalized over orbital period between 1.5 and 2 R_{Earth}_ that is consistent with previous studies. For future improvements, the forward modeling approach of ABC is ideally suited to incorporating multiple populations, such as planets, astrophysical false positives, and pipeline false alarms, to provide accurate planet occurrence rates and uncertainties.