The effect of topographic variability on initial condition sensitivity of low-level wind forecasts. Part I: Experiments using idealized terrain

The challenge faced by this approach is that it typically requires a costly observation system that can be quickly adapted to place instrumentation where needed. The present study examines whether the underlying terrain in a mesoscale model influences model initial condition sensitivity and if knowledge of the terrain and corresponding predominant flow patterns for a region can be used to direct the placement of instrumentation.

This follows the same concept on which earlier targeted observation approaches were based, but eliminates the need for an observation system that needs to be continually reconfigured. Simulations from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its adjoint are used to characterize the locations, variables, and magnitudes of initial condition perturbations that have the most significant impact on the surface wind forecast.