Climate change and physical activity: Ambient temperature and urban trail use in Texas

Generalized additive models estimated the association between temperature and trail counts. We then combined the estimated exposure-response relation with weather projections from climate models for intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios by NASA NEX-GDDP. From summer to autumn to spring to winter, hourly trail counts shifted from bimodal (mid-morning and early-evening peaks) to one mid-day peak.

Pedestrians were more likely to use the trail between 7 and 27 degrees C (45-81 degrees F) with peak use at 17 degrees C (63 degrees F) and cyclists between 15 and 33 degrees C (59-91 degrees F) with peak use at 27 degrees C (81 degrees F) than at temperature extremes. A net decrease in trail use was estimated by 2041-2060 (RCP4.5: pedestrians = -4.5%, cyclists = - 1.1%; RCP8.5: pedestrians = - 6.6%, cyclists = - 1.6%) and 2081-2100 (RCP4.5: pedestrians= -7.5%, cyclists= - 1.9%; RCP8.5: pedestrians= - 16%, cyclists= -4.5%).

Results suggest climate change may reduce trail use. We recommend interventions for thermal comfort at settings for physical activity.