Data Sheet 1_A systems-level analysis of energy, infrastructure, and economic viability of commercial hypersonic point-to-point (P2P).docx

This paper addresses the critical question of whether such travel can be technically feasible, economically viable, and environmentally sustainable within the coming decades.</p>Methods<p>We analyze two core technological pillars—Turbine-Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) propulsion and adaptive morphing aerodynamics—integrated within a multidisciplinary framework addressing thermal management.

The central contribution is a coupled techno-economic model that quantifies interdependencies between propulsion efficiency, hydrogen costs, infrastructure capital expenditure, lifecycle carbon intensity, and operating costs. Liquid hydrogen (LH₂) is posited as indispensable due to its specific impulse and cooling capacity for air-breathing hypersonic propulsion.</p>Results<p>Three quantitative findings emerge: (1) green hydrogen must reach €2–3 kg⁻¹ by 2035–2040 for levelized cost of travel (LCOT) to fall below €0.60 passenger-km⁻¹; (2) a 100-aircraft fleet requires 1.65 Mt yr⁻¹ LH₂, corresponding to 15–20 GW electrolysis capacity and €10–20B capital expenditure; (3) well-to-wake emissions for green-hydrogen pathways range from 150–350 g CO₂e passenger-km⁻¹, representing a 70%–80% reduction relative to subsonic Jet-A operations.</p>Discussion<p>Commercial viability necessitates realistic deployment beginning 2035–2045, following a staged pathway, with 2030 reframed as aspirational for flight demonstration rather than entry-into-service.