Application of multivariate sensitivity analysis techniques to AGCM-simulated tropical cyclones

The methodology allows simultaneous exploration of the effect of changes in multiple inputs, and accommodates nonlinear interaction effects among parameters in a computationally affordable way. The concept is illustrated via computation of the sensitivities of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)-simulated tropical cyclones to changes in model initial conditions.

Specifically, Sobol's variance-based sensitivity analysis is used to examine the response of cyclone intensity, cloud radiative forcing, cloud content, and precipitation rate to changes in initial conditions in an idealized AGCM-simulated tropical cyclone (TC). Control factors of interest include the following: initial vortex size and intensity, environmental sea surface temperature, vertical lapse rate, and midlevel relative humidity.