Uncertainty from the choice of microphysics scheme in convection-permitting models significantly exceeds aerosol effects

Sensitivity tests show that the representation of autoconversion is the dominant factor that drives differences in rain production between the microphysics schemes in the idealised precipitating shallow cumulus case and in a subregion of the Congo basin simulations dominated by liquidphase processes. In this region, rain mass is also shown to be relatively insensitive to the radiative effects of an overlying layer of ice-phase cloud.

The conversion of cloud ice to snow is the process responsible for differences in cold cloud bias between the schemes in the Congo. In the idealised supercell case, thermodynamic impacts on the storm system using different microphysics parameterisations can equal those due to aerosol effects. These results highlight the large uncertainty in cloud and precipitation responses to aerosol in convection-permitting simulations and have important implications not only for process studies of aerosol-convection interaction, but also for global modelling studies of aerosol indirect effects.

These results indicate the continuing need for tighter observational constraints of cloud processes and response to aerosol in a range of meteorological regimes.