Data · dataset · 2026
Forecasting skill of model averages
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Given a collection of science-based computational models that all estimate states of the same environmental system, we compare the forecast skill of the average of the collection to the skills of the individual members.
Description
We illustrate our results through an analysis of regional climate model data and give general criteria for the average to perform more or less skillfully than the most skillful individual model, the "best" model.
The average will only be more skillful than the best model if the individual models in the collection produce very different forecasts; if the individual forecasts generally agree, the average will not be as skillful as the best model.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ws8tp2 ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/forecasting-skill-of-model-averages ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=3e36cc90-31a9-4b0e-bd63-dafdc8b73… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climate model simulation 65%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 3e36cc90-31a9-4b0e-bd63-dafdc8b7372b | 13 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[method].local:method:climate-model | enrichment · data ucar edu | keyword-concept-rules@1.0.0 | title+description (65%) |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |