Effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal soil moisture and temperature predictability in North America and in changing climate simulated by CCSM4

We found significant changes in the spatial distributions of temperature predictability in the present and future climate compared to the preindustrial climate, although the spatial average changes for North America were rather small (<10%). To attribute the potential cause of changes in land-driven temperature predictability, they are correlated with the changes in land related climate metrics. The changes in temperature predictability are positively (0.40), and negatively (-0.35) correlated with the changes in nonrainy days evaporative fraction, and changes in dryness index respectively.

From this result, the hypothesis arises that wetter conditions favor higher land-driven temperature predictability in North America. We tested the hypothesis by rearranging the predictability experiment ensembles and found support for the hypothesis in the midlatitude regions and short-term forecasts (16 to 30 days).