How does El Niño-Southern Oscillation change under global warming — A first look at CMIP6

For the four future scenarios studied, the sea surface temperature variability increases in most CMIP6 models, but to varying degrees. This increase is linked to a weakening of the east-west temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is evident across all models.

Just as in previous generations of climate models, we find that many characteristics of future ENSO remain uncertain. This includes changes in dominant time scale, extratropical teleconnection patterns, and amplitude of El Nino and La Nina events. For models with the strongest increase in future variability, the majority of the increase happens in the Eastern Pacific, where the strongest El Nino events usually occur.