Evaluating the accuracy and uncertainty of atmospheric and wave model hindcasts during severe events using model ensembles

Here, a comprehensive analysis of an atmospheric model performance in hindcast mode (Hurricane Weather and Research Forecasting model-HWRF) and its 40 ensembles during severe events is conducted, evaluating the model accuracy and uncertainty for hurricane track parameters, and wind speed collected along satellite altimeter tracks and at stationary source point observations.

Subsequently, the downstream spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III is forced by two sets of wind field data, each includes 40 members. The first ones are randomly extracted from original HWRF simulations and the second ones are based on spread of best track parameters. The atmospheric model spread and wave model error along satellite altimeters tracks and at stationary source point observations are estimated.